As I wrap up two months of blogging entirely on Syria and its relations with the rest of the world, I want to take a moment to reflect on how much has changed in only two months. Dare I say that I am a little optimistic about where Syria now stands with the rest of the world? My optimism may be premature or fleeting - but consider where Syria was only eight weeks ago and where it is now:
8 weeks ago Syria was:
- Isolated from much of the Western world and some of its Arab neighbors, with little to no contact with the U.S.
- Facing rumors of nuclear weapons development after a mysterious Israeli airstrike on Sept. 6
- Managing the Iraqi refugee crisis largely on its own
- Not speaking with Israel and the Golan Heights was not anywhere close to being discussed
Now, Syria has:
- Attended the Annapolis Peace Conference with the U.S., Israel and Palestine
- Seemingly quashed rumours that it was developing nuclear weapons - and the IAEA has not found any evidence thus far
- Worked out a deal to allow the U.S. into Syria to screen Iraqi refugees for placement in the U.S.
- At least met with Israel and let it be known that the issue of the Golan is not forgotten, maybe paving the way for talks
Now, I know some will say this is not enough, that any “progress” that has been made must be weighed against the piles of work that must be done. The Sept. 6th airstrike remians a mystery. The return of the Golan Heights was not on the official agenda at Annapolis. Syria still has close ties with opponents of the U.S. and remains a “state sponsor of terrorism,” according to our government.
At LEAST everyone seems to be on the way to talking to one another again. And I view this as a GOOD sign. Personally, I am a fan of countries who are at odds actually speaking to one another. Short of war, this is the way the tides have turned in all relations amongst nations.
So, for one day at least, I am going to look at the sunny side of life. This is a good moment for Syria. Let’s hold out hope that progress will continue - in the right direction.
President Assad has reshuffled his cabinet for the third time this year, according to a report from Agence France Press. A source speaking on condition of anonymity said the changes came after a “global re-evaluation.”
What does that mean?
I’m not sure yet. I’ve often wondered what Assad’s relationship is like with those closest to him. He is a British-educated opthamologist by training and is married to a British-bred and educated woman. He has experienced a Western-style democracy first hand and enjoyed its many freedoms.
Assad is credited with some modernizing aspects of Syrian society, namely the internet. I’ve often wondered what kind of man he really is- a closet fan of democracy, with the intent one day of bringing some sort of Arab-style democracy to his country? If this is is the case, are there others inside the regime, from his father’s time of tight-fisted rule, who do not wish to see Assad move forward? Is the cabinet reshuffling Assad’s way of stamping out opposition?
Of course, this is all speculation. Maybe the guys just weren’t doing the job.
Syria Stew would welcome any analysis of the re-shuffle or Assad’s relationship with those inside the regime. I have my own theories about Assad the president. What are yours?
I was hesitant to believe recent reports of Iraqi refugees leaving Syria for Iraq due to decreasing violence at home. I believe several elements are coming together, including a dip in violence, that is making it appear that the Iraqi refugee crisis is over..
First, the Syrian government cracked down on the refugees, closing its border with Iraq last month. Secondly, Syria stopped issuing visas for travel to Syria from Iraq - effectively shutting down the two main routes to getting into Syria. Only those who had business visas or were truck or taxi drivers were allowed into the country. Thirdly, life in Syria has become increasingly difficult for Iraqis. Despite rumors that many come to Syria with money, most Iraqis in Syria are living on savings or have nothing at all when they show up in Damascus. Once there, Iraqis have little source of employment and face price gouging on everything from rent to food to gasoline to taxi rides. There is even a market for Iraqi prostitution. Hardly a career of choice. Fourth, the Iraqis in Syria with visas are running out of time. After their visas expire, they must return to Iraq. In the past, many Iraqis would simply travel to the border, cross into Iraq, and turn right back around, gaining immediate re-entry into Syria for a few more months. This may no longer be the case.
Iraqis in Syria are running out of options. They must return home. There may be a decrease in violence, heartening many refugees who long for home, but it is hardly the only reason why many are returning to Baghdad.
And statistics are showing that it is hardly a flood of refugees that are leaving Syria. An article in the Kansas City Star outlines the numbers clearly-
“According to the Iraqi Red Crescent Society, September and October were the peak months for Iraqis to return home, but the numbers tapered off in November. About 25,000 of the 1.5 million refugees in Syria have returned to Iraq, the Red Crescent said, and 20,000 of those went to Baghdad.
Even the Iraqi government has softened its calls for displaced families to return, with officials admitting the country is not prepared for a large influx of returnees. Many of the families who returned to Baghdad in September and October could not go back to their original residences, the Red Crescent said, meaning they joined the estimated 2 million Iraqis who are internally displaced.”
I found this report about Syria on Current TV. It’s a great introductory piece about the country, its people and its politics. While this was posted one year ago, the information is still relevant for anyone who doesn’t know a thing about Syria - except for what our government tells us.
Watch the video - and see what a “normal” place this “rogue” nation can be and how welcoming its people are to outsiders. This video showcases everything that I had noticed as a visitor to this country in Sept. 2007.
It looks like Syria is trying its best to get the Golan Heights back in the international spotlight-after years of neglect, the government is pouring money back into the region, hoping to lure Syrians back into the region. The Times of Malta reports on the renewal:
“Under the gaze of an Israeli tank, Syrian bulldozers slice through rocky terrain to build roads just inside a ceasefire line separating the occupied Golan Heights from the rest of Syria.
Apartment blocks will follow for thousands of refugees on land facing their hilltop village of Adnanieh, which was lost to Israel in battle 40 years ago along with the rest of the Golan, a fertile plateau south of Damascus.
More than 1,000 flats for refugees from Adnanieh are planned, and infrastructure is being laid out for housing schemes facing other occupied villages, government engineer Hilal al-Ghaeb told Reuters.
“These projects are a message to Israel. The refugees will no longer be scattered in slums and camps all around Syria. Soon they will live here and stare right at their Israeli occupiers,” Ghaeb said.
The Golan is at the focus of Syria’s participation in the US-sponsored peace conference in Annapolis, Maryland, which starts on Tuesday.
President Bashar al-Assad agreed to send a delegation only after receiving a modified copy of the agenda with a session on restarting Syrian-Israeli peace talks, which collapsed in 2000 over the Golan.
Pro-US Arab governments have put pressure on Damascus to join them at Annapolis. But Syrian officials had made it clear they expect the conference to make little progress toward resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Hafez al-Assad, Syria’s late president, refused an Israeli offer seven years ago to withdraw from most of the Golan without giving Syria control of the eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee. The elder Assad told then US President Bill Clinton that he used to swim in the lake before Israel occupied the Golan. Bashar has stuck by the landmark laid by his father - full Israeli withdrawal in return for peace.
“A peace deal is only possible if we regain our full rights and not sell out,” Assad told a Tunisian newspaper last month.
“They (Israel) have heard this in the 1990s and they will hear it now - complete rights and sovereignty on this land and nothing less.”
After decades of neglect, Syria is pouring money into services in frontline Golan territory to draw back residents - and help raise the profile of an issue it wants back on the international agenda. A theatre hall is being built further east from the ceasefire line. Workers occasionally run into mines or unexploded missiles, and United Nations peacekeepers are called to dismantle them.
The government has also launched a media campaign to highlight the Golan’s richness in water and wildlife, and the fact that thousands of Syrians under occupation have refused Israeli citizenship.
This coincided with a renewed Syrian diplomatic push to regain the plateau, following international pressure that forced the Baathist government to withdraw Syrian forces from Lebanon in 2005 after a 29-year presence.
Among Golan refugees, who number 600,000, counting their descendants, Annapolis meant little.
“Israel is feeling very comfortable with US support higher than ever and the Arabs in shambles. I look daily across this line and see Israeli settlers cultivating more of our land,” Hassan Ibrahim said.
An Israeli warplane flies overhead and a tractor driven by an Israeli settler ploughs the fertile land.
Syria launched a war in 1973 that failed to regain the Golan but it won back small parts of the plateau a year later according to a ceasefire agreement that has held firmly since.
The deal gave the Golan’s capital Qunaitera back to Syria, but only after Israeli forces blew up the city’s houses and buildings. Today Qunaitera remains in rubble as evidence of what Hafez al-Assad called “Israeli barbarity”.
Officials said there was no active plan to rebuild the city.”
Dangerous delusion on the Golan
By Aluf Benn 26/04/2007
Story posted from haaretz
“There is a new idea dominating public discourse: Israel will recognize Syrian sovereignty over the Golan Heights and hold the territory under a long-term lease agreement. The towns and military camps will stay in place, with a Syrian flag over them, and in the meantime we will see whether the Syrians behave themselves, conduct a neighborly policy and maintain a stable regime. This way we can stay on the Golan and feel as if it isn’t ours, fulfill the Israeli dream of not being suckers, talk with the Syrians and give them nothing for it. Peace in return for peace.
The initiative of sovereignty/lease is backed by ministers Avigdor Lieberman and Meir Sheetrit. They were joined late last week by MK Ami Ayalon, who is a candidate for the leadership of the Labor Party and is trying to shake off his leftist image and outflank his rival, Ehud Barak, who nearly returned the Golan to Syria seven years ago. The three disagree on one thing: Lieberman is proposing a leasing agreement for a period of 99 years, Sheetrit will make do with 25 years, and Ayalon told Gidi Weitz in an interview for Haaretz Magazine he is talking about “50 or 80 years.”
Those in the know and who are familiar with the detailed history of the negotiations with Syria say Damascus will not agree to such a proposal. They believe that at best it is possible to talk about a shared park over the territory in dispute, along the bank of Lake Kinneret, but not about maintaining Israeli infrastructure over the entire Golan.
Before Bashar Assad is asked about his opinion, it is worthwhile to point out four problems inherent in the leasing idea. “The British also leased Hong Kong.” That is not accurate. Britain occupied Hong Kong during the Opium Wars and established there a Crown Colony with Chinese agreement for an indefinite period of time. Later the British leased more territory (the “new territories”) for 99 years. At the end of the lease period, Britain restored to China the territory it had leased, as well as the colony. Unlike the Israeli occupation of the Golan, which brought about the displacement of most of the Syrian residents there and the destruction of their villages, the British kept the Chinese residents in place and even looked after their rights, and did not settle in their place farmers from Devonshire and Scotland.”
Facebook was blocked in Syria over the weekend, in an apparent crackdown of online activities. The Washington Post reported many in Syria are angered by the block:
Syrian users of Facebook said on Friday the authorities had blocked access to the social network Web site as part of a crackdown on political activism on the Internet.
“Facebook helped further civil society in Syria and form civic groups outside government control. This is why it has been banned,” women’s rights advocate Dania al-Sharif told Reuters.
“They cut off communications between us and the outside world. We are used to this behavior from our government,” said Mais al-Sharbaji, who set up a Facebook group for amateur Syrian photographers.
There was no comment form the government, which has intensified a campaign against bloggers, virtual opinion forums and independent media sites in recent months.
Syria has been under emergency rule since the Baath Party took power in a 1963 coup. No public criticism of the party and the powerful security apparatus is allowed. Scores of dissidents have been jailed over the past year.
On Joshua Landis’ site Syria Comment, at least one person presented a different view of the Facebook crackdown, arguing that the authorities were reacting to offensive spam aimed at President Assad’s wife. Here are some of his comments:
Dear Josh,
Lets put things in a bit of context!
Since the blocking of Facebook in Syria (first ISP blocked it on Saturday, the last ISP to block it was on Thursday), I was monitoring the “Syria Network” on Facebook (the official Facebook network for Syria).
First, here are the facts, my analysis will follow:
1-Official number of Syrian Internet SUBSCRIBERS in Syria is 370,000 (end 2006). The total estimated number of USERS is 1.5 million users.
2-Number of Syrians residing in Syria who are members of Facebook (those on the official “Syria Network”): 28,350 users (23-Nov-2007)
3-Increase ratio of Syrians joining Facebook (overwhelming majority with their full name): 10,000 users per month. In early October, the number of Syrians on the “Syria Network” was 12,000, today it is over 28,000 users.
4-Percentage of Internet Users in Syria who are Facebook users: 28,300 / 1.5 million = 0.0055 percent
Clearly, if I was in security services, the Syrian security services would love to increase this number and have all Syrians on Facebook. This would facilitate fully monitoring people who are using their photo/full name/ address/phone/email..etc. So the theory for blocking Facebook because few of those well-identified non-anonymous users (all 0.005 percent of Internet users!) are “politically active” does not stand.
.
Why now? What has changed in the last few days? Politically active Syrians were using Facebook since day one and no censorship took place until now. What has changed? Did the censors have a target of 0.005 percent of Internet users in Syria to block access to facebook?!
.
In my opinion, the reason is the following:
Since Facebook was launched, the official Syria Facebook network was overwhelmingly “social” in nature with occasional moderate “political activity”. A couple of days before the blocking took place (on Nov 15th), a systematic vulgar spam campaign was launched in the Syria Network by few people (with avatars resembling Israeli flags and ridiculing Syrians and Bashar). Those few persistent users posted thousands of nothing but profanity and attacks on Syria, Bashar and Asma Alasad.
If one enters the Syria Network in the last few days, they would find nothing but curses and profanity against Syria, Bashar and Asma Alasad. The Syrian censors acted as expected of any censorship system in the Middle East on such cases.. they blocked access to Facebook!
Anyone is welcome to try the following interesting experiment:
-Organize a team of few dedicated college students.
-Ask them to join Facebook on the Jordanian, Egyptian, Saudi, UAE, Qatari or Tunisian official networks. Let them spam the network with profanity attacking the president/king in that country with such dedication. I argue that in a matter of hours Facebook would be blocked in such countries. In fact, several social networking tools (similar to Facebook) are blocked in the most progressive (and politically neutral) Gulf countries such as the UAE (Dubai) and Bahrain (services such as Google’s Orkut for example). This is because very few opposition elements used to exist on them…
Despite heavy-handedness in Internet censorship in Syria, I don’t think that the “political activity” of a small portion of 0.005 percent of Syrian Internet users (most of whom by the way -as Alex argued- were staunchly defending Bashar online against such attack!) was the reason behind Facebook getting blocked. It was the systematic abusive spam attack that the Syrian censors had no other control on but to block access. I argue that Syria Comment or Creative Syria blogs have far more “political activity” of Syrian opposition than Facebook but they are still accessible in Syria.
The LA Times reported that sending the deputy minister may be a nod to Syria’s ally Iran:
Sending Moqdad instead of the more senior foreign minister, Walid Moallem, may be a concession to Iran, said the analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity. But Moqdad, a seasoned Syrian diplomat, is considered a relative heavyweight within the Damascus’ political elite. Emad Mustapha, Syria’s well-connected envoy to Washington, will also attend the talks, the official in Damascus said.
The AP gave a great run-down on the dispute between Israel and Syria involving the Golan Heights. Syria hopes that the issue will be addressed at this week’s Annapolis Peace Conference. So for those of you who don’t know, here are the basics:
Location: Plateau at southwestern corner of Syria overlooking Sea of Galilee and northern Israel.
History: Syrian soldiers shelled northern Israel from the Golan Heights between 1948 and 1967. Israel captured the territory in 1967 Mideast war. Israel annexed it in 1981 but no country recognized that.Population: Most of the 100,000 Syrian residents of the Golan Heights fled during the 1967 war and were not allowed to return. About 17,000 remain. A few have accepted Israeli citizenship, but most retain Syrian nationality. About 18,000 Israelis live in 32 settlements built since 1967.
Dispute: In 2000, Israel-Syria peace talks broke down. Israel offered to withdraw from all of the Golan Heights down to the international border in exchange for full peace. Syria insisted on recovering land across the border that it captured in 1948, including the eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee. Israel was not satisfied with Syria’s peace proposals.
