syriastew.com

I was hesitant to believe recent reports of Iraqi refugees leaving Syria for Iraq due to decreasing violence at home. I believe several elements are coming together, including a dip in violence, that is making it appear that the Iraqi refugee crisis is over..

First, the Syrian government cracked down on the refugees, closing its border with Iraq last month. Secondly, Syria stopped issuing visas for travel to Syria from Iraq - effectively shutting down the two main routes to getting into Syria. Only those who had business visas or were truck or taxi drivers were allowed into the country. Thirdly, life in Syria has become increasingly difficult for Iraqis. Despite rumors that many come to Syria with money, most Iraqis in Syria are living on savings or have nothing at all when they show up in Damascus. Once there, Iraqis have little source of employment and face price gouging on everything from rent to food to gasoline to taxi rides. There is even a market for Iraqi prostitution. Hardly a career of choice. Fourth, the Iraqis in Syria with visas are running out of time. After their visas expire, they must return to Iraq. In the past, many Iraqis would simply travel to the border, cross into Iraq, and turn right back around, gaining immediate re-entry into Syria for a few more months. This may no longer be the case.

Iraqis in Syria are running out of options. They must return home. There may be a decrease in violence, heartening many refugees who long for home, but it is hardly the only reason why many are returning to Baghdad.

And statistics are showing that it is hardly a flood of refugees that are leaving Syria. An article in the Kansas City Star outlines the numbers clearly-

“According to the Iraqi Red Crescent Society, September and October were the peak months for Iraqis to return home, but the numbers tapered off in November. About 25,000 of the 1.5 million refugees in Syria have returned to Iraq, the Red Crescent said, and 20,000 of those went to Baghdad.

Even the Iraqi government has softened its calls for displaced families to return, with officials admitting the country is not prepared for a large influx of returnees. Many of the families who returned to Baghdad in September and October could not go back to their original residences, the Red Crescent said, meaning they joined the estimated 2 million Iraqis who are internally displaced.”